Wednesday, August 1, 2012

Women's Individual All Around Preview

Top 24 Qualifiers and Scores:

1. Viktoria Komova - RUS - 60.632
2. Alexandra Raisman - USA - 60.391
3. Gabrielle Douglas - USA - 60.265
4. Aliya Mustafina - RUS - 59.966
5. Deng Linlin - CHN - 57.998
6. Vanessa Ferrari - ITA - 57.932
7. Asuka Teramoto - JPN - 57.865
8. Larisa Andreea Iordache - ROU - 57.800
9. Huang Quishaung - CHN - 57.707
10. Sandra Izbasa - ROU - 57.532
11. Jessica Lopez - VEN - 56.665
12. Elisabeth Seitz - GER - 56.466
13. Rebecca Tunney - GRB - 56.391
14. Ana Sofia Gomez Porras - GUA - 56.132
15. Hannah Whelan - GBR - 55.699
16. Dominique Pegg - CAN - 55.657
17. Celine van Gerner - NED - 55.632
18. Carlotta Ferlito - ITA - 55.500
19. Guilia Steingruber - SUI - 54.715
20. Emily Little - AUS - 54.498
21. Aurelie Malusessena - FRA - 54.399
22. Marta Philan-Kulesza - POL - 54.365
23. Rie Tanaka - JPN - 54.333
24. Ashleigh Brennen - AUS - 54.232

What to watch for:

ANYTHING can happen in the All Around competition. The most minuscule misstep can lead to a gymnast not medaling and a large error will take them totally out of it instantly. This can happen to anyone, even the best of the gymnasts qualified to this final. However, I believe that the greats in this final will make very few if any mistakes, and these will be the 3 ladies that you see on the podium tomorrow night winning the gold, silver, and bronze.

Take a look at the top 4 qualifiers: Viktoria Komova, Aly Raisman, Gabrielle Douglas, and Aliya Mustifina, and a look at their scores. Even the 4th place qualifier, Mustafina is almost a good 2 points ahead of the 5th place finisher. I believe that the Top 4 will be the challengers for the medals tomorrow night, and quite obviously, one of them is going to be disappointed and finish off of the podium. So in this preview, I'm mainly going to focus on these 4 gymnasts, since I believe they have the best shot of medaling in the All Around.

Komova qualified with the top score. In qualifications, she performed solidly on every event with the exception of floor, on which she scored very low -- in the 13's. This performance led to her being pulled from the line up in team final. In team final, Komova stepped out of bounds to the side on her Amanar vault, yet was still rewarded a high score. However, she needs to clean up that Amanar if she's going to have any chance of scoring close to Aly Raisman or Gabrielle Douglas's vault scores. Komova is simply a superstar on the uneven bars, and this is where her advantage is going to be and where she will need to pick up some extra tenths after the vault. In team final on balance beam, she was a little slow on her connections and was off the mat on her dismount, so she will really need to fix that before tomorrow. She also needs to do better on her floor exercise execution to have a shot. Komova has the skills and difficulty to win the gold, but she has to clean up the executions in her routines.

Aly Raisman had the meet of her life during qualifications. I believe that what really put her ahead of both Gabby and Jordyn was her vault. She did the best vault I've seen her do this year. With her scores on balance beam and floor exercise both normally in the 15+, I believe that her vault was the difference between making AA and not. She needs to have another superb Amanar vault tomorrow if she wants to have a hope of getting the gold. She also needs to do a solid uneven bars set tomorrow like she did in qualifications. Everyone knows that bars is not Aly's strength, but if she can hit cleanly, with no falls, her other scores will give her the numbers she needs to medal. Beam in team finals was just a TAD shaky. She needs to hit everything and score above 15 like she did in qualifications, I believe, to win gold. For floor, its simple: she is the BEST in the world. All she needs to do is go out and do her routine the way she did in qualifications and she's golden. I pray that Aly keeps her focus and believes in herself. That will be vital to her possibly winning the All Around gold medal.

Gabby Douglas has constantly proved me wrong these Olympic games. I've been nervous about her so many times, and she just keeps going on up there and hitting routine after routine. She is legit, the real deal. Her vaults have been amazing, bars have been incredible, SO IMPROVED on the balance beam, especially in team final, and other than the bound out of bounds in qualifications, her floor has been solid as well! Honestly there is no other criticisms that I can find in her! All she has to do is just TRUST herself and BELIEVE that she can be the Olympic All Around Champion, take that out onto the floor and hit her routines, and she will be. Thats all there is to it. Her nervousness is the only thing that can hold her back, and I haven't seen it thus far at these Games so I don't expect to see it tomorrow. 

Aliya Mustafina has had a rough time in these Olympics thus far. Her qualifications day was decent but unfortunately she did not have a good day during the team final. Aliya actually surprisingly to me has looked nervous. I normally do not sense or see that from her but I have these last few days. She definitely did not look like the girl who DOMINATED the 2010 Worlds, and started out 2011 by losing the American Cup because she told her coach she was doing her floor the way that SHE wanted it and not him. I have always love that about Mustafina, that she knows that she is NO DOUBT amazingly talented and never second guesses that fact. For her to medal, she's going to have to get that belief and confidence back. She needs to forget what happened in team final: a VERY shaky balance beam routine with 3 major balance checks that almost led to falls as well as missed connections, which happened right after they had closed the gap on the US and could have pulled into the lead. She needs to vault exactly the way she did that night, sticking her DTY. I wonder if she will throw an Amanar .. wouldn't surprise me but I don't think so. She needs to be amazing on bars as she always is, and she could afford to clean up her floor landings just a tiny bit. I really love Aliya and I want her to medal so badly.

My Medal Podium:

Gabby Douglas, Aliya Mustafina, Aly Raisman .. I listed them alphabetically, no rank at all because I can't decide. I want an American to win Gold, I don't care who though and I want Mustafina to get silver or bronze but again I can't decide my placements because I like them all so much. But as long as those 3 girls are on the medal podium, I'm happy :)


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